Skip to main content

ASU Scholarship Showcase


Contributor
Date Range
2011 2016

Community associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) has become a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) in the US. We developed an age-structured compartmental model to study the spread of CA-MRSA at the population level and assess the effect of control intervention strategies. We used Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) techniques to parameterize our model using monthly time series data on SSTIs incidence in children (≤19 years) during January 2004 -December 2006 in Maricopa County, Arizona. Our model-based forecast for the period January 2007–December 2008 also provided a good fit to data. We also carried out an uncertainty and ...

Contributors
Wang, Xiaoxia, Panchanathan, Sarada, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, et al.
Created Date
2013-11-21

Background: Extreme heat is a public health challenge. The scarcity of directly comparable studies on the association of heat with morbidity and mortality and the inconsistent identification of threshold temperatures for severe impacts hampers the development of comprehensive strategies aimed at reducing adverse heat-health events. Objectives: This quantitative study was designed to link temperature with mortality and morbidity events in Maricopa County, Arizona, USA, with a focus on the summer season. Methods: Using Poisson regression models that controlled for temporal confounders, we assessed daily temperature–health associations for a suite of mortality and morbidity events, diagnoses, and temperature metrics. Minimum risk ...

Contributors
Petitti, Diana B., Hondula, David, Yang, Shuo, et al.
Created Date
2015-07-28

The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV can also be transmitted via sexual contact with cases of sexually transmitted ZIKV reported in Argentina, Canada, Chile, France, Italy, New Zealand, Peru, Portugal, and the USA. Yet, the role of sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV infection is not well-understood. We introduce a mathematical model to investigate the impact of mosquito-borne and sexual transmission on the spread and control of ZIKV and ...

Contributors
Gao, Daozhou, Lou, Yijun, He, Daihai, et al.
Created Date
2016-06-17

Background Elucidating the role of the underlying risk factors for severe outcomes of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic could be crucial to define priority risk groups in resource-limited settings in future pandemics. Methods We use individual-level clinical data on a large series of ARI (acute respiratory infection) hospitalizations from a prospective surveillance system of the Mexican Social Security medical system to analyze clinical features at presentation, admission delays, selected comorbidities and receipt of seasonal vaccine on the risk of A/H1N1-related death. We considered ARI hospitalizations and inpatient-deaths, and recorded demographic, geographic, and medical information on individual patients during August-December, 2009. ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Echevarria-Zuno, Santiago, Viboud, Cecile, et al.
Created Date
2012-07-16

Background On 31 March 2013, the first human infections with the novel influenza A/H7N9 virus were reported in Eastern China. The outbreak expanded rapidly in geographic scope and size, with a total of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases reported by 3 June 2013, in 10 Chinese provinces and Taiwan. The incidence of A/H7N9 cases has stalled in recent weeks, presumably as a consequence of live bird market closures in the most heavily affected areas. Here we compare the transmission potential of influenza A/H7N9 with that of other emerging pathogens and evaluate the impact of intervention measures in an effort to guide pandemic ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Simonsen, Lone, Towers, Sherry, et al.
Created Date
2013-10-02

Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Nishiura, Hiroshi, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, et al.
Created Date
2015-01-21

Background Ebola virus disease (EVD) has generated a large epidemic in West Africa since December 2013. This mini-review is aimed to clarify and illustrate different theoretical concepts of infectiousness in order to compare the infectiousness across different communicable diseases including EVD. Methods We employed a transmission model that rests on the renewal process in order to clarify theoretical concepts on infectiousness, namely the basic reproduction number, R[subscript 0], which measures the infectiousness per generation of cases, the force of infection (i.e. the hazard rate of infection), the intrinsic growth rate (i.e. infectiousness per unit time) and the per-contact probability of ...

Contributors
Nishiura, Hiroshi, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, et al.
Created Date
2015-01-06

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005–2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided ...

Contributors
Liu, Hai-Ning, Gao, Li-Dong, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, et al.
Created Date
2014-09-03

Background Highly refined surveillance data on the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic are crucial to quantify the spatial and temporal characteristics of the pandemic. There is little information about the spatial-temporal dynamics of pandemic influenza in South America. Here we provide a quantitative description of the age-specific morbidity pandemic patterns across administrative areas of Peru. Methods We used daily cases of influenza-like-illness, tests for A/H1N1 influenza virus infections, and laboratory-confirmed A/H1N1 influenza cases reported to the epidemiological surveillance system of Peru's Ministry of Health from May 1 to December 31, 2009. We analyzed the geographic spread of the pandemic waves and ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Viboud, Cecile, Munayco, Cesar V., et al.
Created Date
2011-06-21

Theory suggests that human behavior has implications for disease spread. We examine the hypothesis that individuals engage in voluntary defensive behavior during an epidemic. We estimate the number of passengers missing previously purchased flights as a function of concern for swine flu or A/H1N1 influenza using 1.7 million detailed flight records, Google Trends, and the World Health Organization's FluNet data. We estimate that concern over “swine flu,” as measured by Google Trends, accounted for 0.34% of missed flights during the epidemic. The Google Trends data correlates strongly with media attention, but poorly (at times negatively) with reported cases in FluNet. ...

Contributors
Fenichel, Eli P., Kuminoff, Nicolai, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, et al.
Created Date
2013-03-20