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ASU Scholarship Showcase


This growing collection consists of scholarly works authored by ASU-affiliated faculty, students and community members, and contains many open access articles. ASU-affiliated authors are encouraged to Share Your Work in the ASU Digital Repository.


Contributor
Date Range
2011 2016


Community associated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) has become a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) in the US. We developed an age-structured compartmental model to study the spread of CA-MRSA at the population level and assess the effect of control intervention strategies. We used Monte-Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) techniques to parameterize our model using monthly time series data on SSTIs incidence in children (≤19 years) during January 2004 -December 2006 in Maricopa County, Arizona. Our model-based forecast for the period January 2007–December 2008 also provided a good fit to data. We also carried out an uncertainty and ...

Contributors
Wang, Xiaoxia, Panchanathan, Sarada, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, et al.
Created Date
2013-11-21

Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is currently a major cause of skin and soft tissue infections (SSTI) in the United States. Seasonal variation of MRSA infections in hospital settings has been widely observed. However, systematic time-series analysis of incidence data is desirable to understand the seasonality of community acquired (CA)-MRSA infections at the population level. In this paper, using data on monthly SSTI incidence in children aged 0–19 years and enrolled in Medicaid in Maricopa County, Arizona, from January 2005 to December 2008, we carried out time-series and nonlinear regression analysis to determine the periodicity, trend, and peak timing in ...

Contributors
Wang, Xiaoxia, Towers, Sherry, Panchanathan, Sarada, et al.
Created Date
2013-04-02

Background Theory suggests that individual behavioral responses impact the spread of flu-like illnesses, but this has been difficult to empirically characterize. Social distancing is an important component of behavioral response, though analyses have been limited by a lack of behavioral data. Our objective is to use media data to characterize social distancing behavior in order to empirically inform explanatory and predictive epidemiological models. Methods We use data on variation in home television viewing as a proxy for variation in time spent in the home and, by extension, contact. This behavioral proxy is imperfect but appealing since information on a rich ...

Contributors
Springborn, Michael, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, MacLachlan, Matthew, et al.
Created Date
2015-01-23

Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Nishiura, Hiroshi, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, et al.
Created Date
2015-01-21

Background Elucidating the role of the underlying risk factors for severe outcomes of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic could be crucial to define priority risk groups in resource-limited settings in future pandemics. Methods We use individual-level clinical data on a large series of ARI (acute respiratory infection) hospitalizations from a prospective surveillance system of the Mexican Social Security medical system to analyze clinical features at presentation, admission delays, selected comorbidities and receipt of seasonal vaccine on the risk of A/H1N1-related death. We considered ARI hospitalizations and inpatient-deaths, and recorded demographic, geographic, and medical information on individual patients during August-December, 2009. ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Echevarria-Zuno, Santiago, Viboud, Cecile, et al.
Created Date
2012-07-16

In this study we characterized the relationship between temperature and mortality in central Arizona desert cities that have an extremely hot climate. Relationships between daily maximum apparent temperature (AT[subscript max]) and mortality for eight condition-specific causes and all-cause deaths were modeled for all residents and separately for males and females ages <65 and ≥65 during the months May–October for years 2000–2008. The most robust relationship was between ATmax on day of death and mortality from direct exposure to high environmental heat. For this condition-specific cause of death, the heat thresholds in all gender and age groups (AT[subscript max] = 90–97 ...

Contributors
Harlan, Sharon, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Yang, Shuo, et al.
Created Date
2014-03-20

Background Increasing our understanding of the factors affecting the severity of the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic in different regions of the world could lead to improved clinical practice and mitigation strategies for future influenza pandemics. Even though a number of studies have shed light into the risk factors associated with severe outcomes of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza infections in different populations (e.g., [1-5]), analyses of the determinants of mortality risk spanning multiple pandemic waves and geographic regions are scarce. Between-country differences in the mortality burden of the 2009 pandemic could be linked to differences in influenza case management, underlying population health, ...

Contributors
Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, Viboud, Cecile, Simonsen, Lone, et al.
Created Date
2012-04-20

The 1918 influenza pandemic was a major epidemiological event of the twentieth century resulting in at least twenty million deaths worldwide; however, despite its historical, epidemiological, and biological relevance, it remains poorly understood. Here we examine the relationship between annual pneumonia and influenza death rates in the pre-pandemic (1910–17) and pandemic (1918–20) periods and the scaling of mortality with latitude, longitude and population size, using data from 66 large cities of the United States. The mean pre-pandemic pneumonia death rates were highly associated with pneumonia death rates during the pandemic period (Spearman ρ = 0.64–0.72; P<0.001). By contrast, there was ...

Contributors
Acuna-Soto, Rodolfo, Viboud, Cecile, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, et al.
Created Date
2011-08-19

Background The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US. Methods We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978–1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995–2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control. Results We estimate that the ...

Contributors
Charu, Vivek, Viboud, Cecile, Simonsen, Lone, et al.
Created Date
2011-11-07

Background While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high. Methods Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling ...

Contributors
Cobos, April, Nelson, Clinton, Jehn, Megan, et al.
Created Date
2016-08-11