Arizona State and Local Government Documents Collection

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Widespread obesity in the U.S. is a relatively recent phenomenon, reaching epidemic proportions only in the last 15 years. However, existing research shows that while calorie expenditure through physical activity has not changed appreciably since 1980, calorie consumption has risen dramatically. Consequently, any explanation of obesity must address the reason why consumers tend to overeat in spite of somewhat obvious future health implications. This study tests for an addiction to food nutrients as a potential explanation for the obesity epidemic. Specifically, we use a random coefficients (mixed) logit model applied to household scanner data to test a multivariate version of ...

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Patterson, Paul Malcolm, Tegene, Abebayehu, et al.
Created Date
2004-07-09

Supermarket retailers make strategic pricing decisions in a high-frequency, repeated game environment both in buying and selling fresh produce. In this context, there is some question as to whether a non-cooperative equilibrium can emerge that produces margins above the competitive level. Supermarket pricing results from tacitly collusive equilibria supported by trigger price strategies played in upstream markets. Upstream activities are, in turn, driven by periodic retail price promotions. We test this hypothesis using a sample of fresh produce pricing data from 20 supermarket chains in markets distributed throughout the U.S. Our results support the existence of tacitly collusive non-cooperative equilibria ...

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Patterson, Paul Malcolm, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2004-08-05

Many public programs promote diets rich in fruits and vegetables based on evidence on the derived health benefits. Sill, produce consumption in the U.S. lags behind other nations, even its most culturally similar neighbor–Canada. This study uses a structural latent variable model to test the role quality and health information play in explaining observed differences in produce consumption. The Alchian-Allen effect predicts that higher quality, higher absolute margin produce will be exported, suggesting that quality may be an important demand factor in importing nations such as Canada. The results show that dietary health information is significant in expanding demands. Quality ...

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Patterson, Paul Malcolm, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2004-07

Product-line length, or variety, is a key competitive tool used by retailers to differentiate themselves from rivals. Theoretical models of price and variety competition suggest that both store and product heterogeneity are key determinants of price and variety strategies, but none test this hypothesis in a rigorous way. This study provides the first empirical evidence on supermarket retailers’ combined price and variety strategies using a nested CES modeling framework. Unlike other discrete-choice models of product differentiation, the NCES model is sufficiently general to admit both corner and interior solutions in both store and product choice. The model is estimated using ...

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2004-07

Supermarkets use periodic price promotions, or “sales” on a regular basis for a variety of products. Relatively little is understood about why supermarkets promote perishable items such as fresh fruits and vegetables, dairy products or meat. The primary contribution of this paper lies in demonstrating that sales among perishable food items are mixed-strategy equilibria among multi-product retailers in which managers choose both the size of the promotion and the number of products to promote.

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2004

This paper presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives. Specification tests find that a temperature series for Fresno, California follows a mean-reverting Brownian motion process with discrete jumps and ARCH errors. Based on this process, we define an equilibrium pricing model for cooling degree day weather options. Comparing option prices estimated with three methods: a traditional burn-rate approach, a Black-Scholes-Merton approximation, and an equilibrium Monte Carlo simulation reveals significant differences. Equilibrium prices are preferred on theoretical grounds, so are used to demonstrate the usefulness of weather derivatives as risk management tools for California specialty crop growers.

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Manfredo, Mark R., Sanders, Dwight R., et al.
Created Date
2004-02-24

Native American obesity and the associated health conditions are generally thought to result in part from a genetic predisposition to overeating fats and carbohydrates, called the “thrifty gene.” Although coined by nutritional scientists, this study maintains the origin of the thrifty gene lies in economics. Apparently harmful overconsumption and addiction constitute economically rational behavior if the increment to current utility from adding to one’s stock of “consumption capital” is greater than the present value of utility lost in the future due to ill health and the costs of withdrawl. Tests of these conditions for such “rational addiction” are conducted using ...

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Patterson, Paul Malcolm, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2004-02-16

Agricultural cooperatives tend to be riskier than investor-oriented firms, both in a business and financial sense. However, cooperative managers are often reluctant to actively manage risk. Although the “risk management irrelevance proposition” suggests that cooperative managers should be unable to add shareholder value through risk management activities, this study argues that there are several reasons why this is not likely to be the case for cooperatives. Several empirical examples are provided through numerical simulation of pro-forma financial statements from representative agricultural cooperatives. Using mean variance, expected utility and valueat-risk metrics, the results of these simulations show that various risk management ...

Contributors
Manfredo, Mark R., Richards, Timothy James, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2003

The Lanchester model of strategic interaction typically considers only two-firm rivalry and one strategic tool. This paper presents an alternative that considers rivalry among several firms using multiple tools. Marketing decisions are dynamically optimal and use equations of motion for market share that are consistent with optimal consumer choice. Using a single-market case study that consists of five years of monthly data on ready to eat cereal sales, advertising, product development investments and new product introductions, we test our model against a similar Lanchester specification. Non-nested specification tests fail to reject the proposed model, but reject the Lanchester alternative.

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Patterson, Paul Malcolm, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management
Created Date
2002

“Commodity promotion” consists of many activities, each designed to contribute to a consumer’s product knowledge or influence tastes. However, both knowledge and tastes are unobservable, or latent, variables influencing demand. This paper specifies a dynamic structural model of fresh fruit demand that treats promotion and other socioeconomic variables as "causal" variables influencing these latent variables. Estimating this state-space model using a Kalman filter approach provides estimates of both the system parameters and a latent variable series. The results show that these latent effects contribute positively to apple and other fruit consumption, while reducing banana consumption.

Contributors
Richards, Timothy James, Gao, X. M., Patterson, Paul Malcolm, et al.
Created Date
1998-06

The State And Local Arizona Documents (SALAD) collection contains documents published by the State of Arizona, its Counties, incorporated Cities or Towns, or affiliated Councils of Government; documents produced under the auspices of a state or local agency, board, commission or department, including reports made to these units; and Salt River Project, a licensed municipality. ASU is a primary collector of state publications and makes a concerted effort to acquire and catalog most materials published by state and local governmental agencies.

The ASU Digital Repository provides access to digital SALAD publications, however the ASU Libraries’ non-digitized Arizona documents can be searched through the ASU Libraries Catalog and Library One Search. For additional assistance, Ask A Government Documents Librarian.

Publications issued by the Morrison Institute for Public Programs at Arizona State University are available in the ASU Digital Repository Morrison Institute for Public Policy - Publications Archive collection.