ASU Electronic Theses and Dissertations
- 2 English
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The increased number of novel pathogens that potentially threaten the human population has motivated the development of mathematical and computational modeling approaches for forecasting epidemic impact and understanding key environmental characteristics that influence the spread of diseases. Yet, in the case that substantial uncertainty surrounds the transmission process during a rapidly developing infectious disease outbreak, complex mechanistic models may be too difficult to be calibrated quick enough for policy makers to make informed decisions. Simple phenomenological models that rely on a small number of parameters can provide an initial platform for assessing the epidemic trajectory, estimating the reproduction number and …
- Pell, Bruce, Kuang, Yang, Chowell-Puente, Gerardo, et al.
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This dissertation explores the impact of environmental dependent risk on disease dynamics within a Lagrangian modeling perspective; where the identity (defined by place of residency) of individuals is preserved throughout the epidemic process. In Chapter Three, the impact of individuals who refuse to be vaccinated is explored. MMR vaccination and birth rate data from the State of California are used to determine the impact of the anti-vaccine movement on the dynamics of growth of the anti-vaccine sub-population. Dissertation results suggest that under realistic California social dynamics scenarios, it is not possible to revert the influence of anti-vaccine contagion. In Chapter …
- Moreno Martinez, Victor Manuel, Castillo-Chavez, Carlos, Kang, Yun, et al.
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