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Government Revenue Forecasting During Exceptional Times

Abstract Government revenue forecasting errors have become larger, especially in exceptional times such as the periods surrounding economic recessions. Inaccurate revenue estimates stem from unanticipated revenue increases or decreases from a previous trend. Unfortunately, current forecasting methods relying primarily on trend analysis do not incorporate these kinds of sudden changes easily. When revenue punctuations occur, the revenue forecasting errors increase.

To reduce forecasting errors caused by revenue punctuations in government revenue collections, I argued that analysts must not dismiss outliers as extraneous or useless phenomena. My research revealed an approach to incorporate outliers or punctuations into revenue forecasting. First, ... (more)
Created Date 2018
Contributor Wang, Dan (Author) / Miller, Gerald J (Advisor) / Lan, Gerald, Zhiyong (Committee member) / Wilson, Jeffery R (Committee member) / Arizona State University (Publisher)
Subject Public administration / Public policy / Finance
Type Doctoral Dissertation
Extent 125 pages
Language English
Reuse Permissions All Rights Reserved
Note Doctoral Dissertation Public Administration and Policy 2018
Collaborating Institutions Graduate College / ASU Library
Additional Formats MODS / OAI Dublin Core / RIS

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Description Dissertation/Thesis